Europe’s Winter May Buck the Recent Warming Trend

(Bloomberg) --

December could usher in cooler seasonal temperatures across Europe, bucking a recent winter warming trend.

That’s the conclusion of forecasters at the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service in their long-term weather outlook. With the Autumnal equinox passing at 2:30 p.m. on Tuesday in London, energy traders are increasingly alert to how cooling temperatures in the northern hemisphere impact demand for natural gas and power.

Last year Europe had its hottest winter on record, resulting in fewer heating days. The abnormally high temperatures in the last year curbed energy demand, costing the industry billions of dollars in lost revenue. Producers from Russia to Norway have curtailed gas supplies because everyone from homeowners to heavy industry didn’t need as much heat as usual.

Temperatures across swathes of Europe could hew closer to longer term averages, with lower certainty of hotter weather than in last year’s September forecast. That outlook is a potential break from recent weather, when unusually warm conditions have prevailed since the start of last winter.

The Copernicus model combines data from scientists in the U.K., France, Germany, Italy and the U.S. The EU program uses billions of measurements from satellites, ships, aircraft and weather stations around the world for its monthly and seasonal forecasts and concluded that 2019 was the continent’s hottest year on record.

Temperatures across Europe during the season have a 40% to 50% probability of being well-above long term averages, according to Copernicus. Scandinavia has 50% probability of receiving precipitation well-above historical averages through December. The Iberian Peninsula is forecast to be drier with the rest of the continent falling within average means.

Globally, Copernicus gives parts of the U.S. east and west coasts greater than a 50% probability of experiencing temperatures well-above historical averages in December. Parts of southeast Asia have more than a 60% probability of experiencing mean sea level pressure well-below norms.

©2020 Bloomberg L.P.