Putin, Rouhani Rebuff Turkey in Call Against Syrian Extremists
Erdogan Seeks Help From Putin, Rouhani to Restrain Syria's Assad
(Bloomberg) -- Russia and Iran expressed on Monday their growing frustration with extremists in northwest Syria, pitting them against Turkey, which fears renewed fighting in the area could unleash millions of migrants onto its borders.
Russian President Vladimir Putin and Iran’s Hassan Rouhani both said at a meeting in the Turkish capital with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan that their 2018 accord to clear the province of Idlib, the last rebel bastion, didn’t go as planned and that Islamic militants have since gained ground.
Although the two leaders stopped short of directly calling on their host to do more against the militants, their growing expectations from Ankara for help in Idlib puts them on a collision course with Erdogan. The Turkish president warned against an outbreak of violence in the area, which he said could affect as much as 4 million Syrians.
“It’s clear that Turkey can’t shoulder the burden of migrants on its own,” Erdogan said during a joint press conference with Putin and Rouhani. “It’s impossible to withstand another flow of migrants.”
Extremists’ Shelter
Pacifying Idlib would allow President Bashar al-Assad to consolidate control over all but the oil-rich northeastern part of Syria, setting the stage for reconciliation and reconstruction by ending the worst of the fighting.
Putin and Rouhani said the de-escalation zone in Idlib should not be used as a shelter by the extremists. “We need to take additional steps together to completely eliminate the terrorists threat,” the Russian leader said.
While Russia feels it has the upper hand over Turkey, which has military observers stationed in the Idlib area, it can’t launch a full-scale offensive without Ankara’s go-ahead, said Alexei Malashenko, senior analyst at the Berlin-based Dialogue of Civilizations research group co-founded by an ally of the Russian president.
“If this is agreed with the Turks, they will allow military actions in certain areas,” Malashenko said.
3.6 Million Refugees
Erdogan, however, is determined avoid an influx of Syrians fleeing an expected Russian-backed offensive on the rebel stronghold. Turkey already hosts 3.6 million Syrians who escaped the civil war.
Turkey says 500,000 Syrians have already hunkered down just across the border, and as fighting in Idlib has intensified in recent weeks, the number of migrants entering Europe from Turkey has grown. If the fighting gives way to an all-out offensive, Turkey has said it will block fleeing Syrians from entering.
Still smarting after the ruling party’s loss of Turkey’s two biggest cities in local elections in June, and facing mounting criticism over the cost of hosting Syrians, Erdogan wants to find a way to send some migrants back.
An ideal area to relocate as many as 3 millions refugees is northern Syria, where Turkey wants to create a buffer zone by pushing away Syrian Kurdish militants, Erdogan said. Turkey reached an agreement with the U.S. last month to that end but progress is scarce. Should the deal fail to yield its intended results, Turkey will act unilaterally to create what it says will be a “secure zone,” Erdogan said.
“Erdogan’s plan to relocate Sunni refugees along the border area is part of his push to confront Kurdish influence on Turkey’s doorstep,” said Nihat Ali Ozcan, a strategist at the Economic Policy Research Foundation in Ankara.
Constitutional Committee
Perhaps the only bright spot where Russia, Turkey and Iran could agree on during Monday’s meeting was creation of a constitutional committee, a key objective in their efforts to stabilize the war-torn Syria.
The countries agreed on who would take part in the committee, which should pave the way for substantial talks on a new constitution, the leaders said.
The committee’s creation marks Turkey’s strengthening alliance with Russia, where the two countries work side by side in Syria despite deep differences on key issues, such as Idlib. But there are larger forces as play in Ankara’s growing detente with Moscow, such as the near-constant battle of wills with the U.S., Turkey’s partner in NATO.
Ankara recently bought a Russian missile-defense system, and has mooted the idea of ordering advanced fighter jets from Russia, despite the threat of U.S. sanctions that could send Turkey’s fragile currency into another dive. A Russian Su-35 warplane flew over Istanbul on Sunday before its display at a defense fair Tuesday, showing Russia’s interest in selling the jet to Turkey.
Erdogan’s administration suspects Washington ultimately supports Syrian Kurdish militant group YPG’s aspiration for some form of Kurdish self-rule, and is using the group to defend American interests as Syria’s eight-year civil war nears an end.
“The distrust and skepticism run very high” but both Ankara and Washington know they must salvage their ties, said Kilic Bugra Kanat, a Washington-based research director at Turkish think-tank SETA.
--With assistance from Selcan Hacaoglu and Stepan Kravchenko.
To contact the reporters on this story: Firat Kozok in Ankara at fkozok@bloomberg.net;Henry Meyer in Moscow at hmeyer4@bloomberg.net
To contact the editors responsible for this story: Onur Ant at oant@bloomberg.net;Lin Noueihed at lnoueihed@bloomberg.net;Torrey Clark at tclark8@bloomberg.net
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