ECB’s Wait, U.S. Mulls Import Ban, Russia’s Exodus: Eco Day

(Bloomberg) -- Sign up for the New Economy Daily newsletter, follow us @economics and subscribe to our podcast.

Welcome to Monday, Europe. Here’s the latest news and analysis from Bloomberg Economics to help you start the week.

• European Central Bank officials on alert for any sign record inflation might ignite wage pressures are now wondering if they may need to keep waiting
• The Biden administration is considering whether to prohibit Russian oil imports into the U.S. even without the participation of allies in Europe, at least initially, according to two people familiar with the matter
• The international isolation of Russia is leaving local businesses flailing as foreign firms head for the exits, helping to drive the economy deeper into recession
• European currencies are plunging to new lows as the war in Ukraine escalates, spurring macro traders to sell some of their most liquid assets
• Fed chair Jerome Powell’s push to limit rate liftoff this month to a quarter point was bolstered by unexpectedly stagnant wages
  • Meanwhile, Bloomberg Economics expects February CPI inflation will touch 8%
• The war in Ukraine is moving too rapidly for the European Central Bank to have a clear sense of how monetary policy should be altered in response at its meeting Thursday, Bloomberg Economics says
• IMF warns of “severe impact” on global economy from the war
  • Bloomberg Economics highlights three charts from Putin’s war on Ukraine, which they expect will cause GDP to shrink 9% this year
• China’s ambitious GDP target could prove a modest boost for a beleaguered global economy
• China’s export growth moderated in the first two months of the year, pointing to more stable global demand as multiple risks cloud the outlook

©2022 Bloomberg L.P.

With assistance from Bloomberg