Covid-19 Death Forecast Drops as Pandemic Indicators Improve

The outlook for Covid-19 deaths in the U.S. is expected to drop in the coming weeks to levels not seen since November.

The country is forecast to record 7,166 weekly deaths for the week ending April 3, according to new forecasts from the University of Massachusetts’ Reich Lab Covid-19 Forecast Hub. That’s fewer than a third of the peak reported in January.

Unlike deaths, the weekly cases may rise in the coming weeks. Aggregate forecasts for the week ending March 27 ticked up to 319,703 from 305,450, according to the hub, which synthesizes predictions from more than 50 research groups that use statistical models to forecast Covid cases and deaths.

Covid-19 Death Forecast Drops as Pandemic Indicators Improve

Falling death rates reflect fewer Covid cases, which have been on the decline since January, and a vaccination campaign that has immunized more than half of the nation’s elderly, who are most likely to die from the disease. Many indicators of the virus, including cases, deaths, hospitalizations and nursing-home resident and staff incidence, have shown signs of improvement in recent days.

The country has administered 92.1 million doses of vaccines, and is averaging about 2.17 million per day, according to the Bloomberg Vaccine Tracker. At that rate, the U.S. is expected to cover 75% of its population in about six months with two-dose vaccines.

  • There have been more than 524,001 deaths in the U.S., according to Johns Hopkins University data.
  • There were 4,107 new hospital admissions of patients with confirmed Covid-19 cases on March 6, bringing the seven-day rolling average to 4,886, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

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