Covid-19 Active Cases Have Peaked In India, Says Government Panel
Government-appointed panel says India’s total Covid-19 could hit 170 lakh.
A government-appointed panel, while crediting the protracted lockdown for flattening the curve of Covid-19 infections, has said active cases have peaked in India at 10 lakh.
The findings were part of the study by the ‘Covid-19 India National Supermodel’ committee, titled “Progression of the Covid-19 pandemic in India: Prognosis and Lockdown Impacts”. The panel, comprising professors from the Indian Insitutes of Technology and the Indian Institute of Science, used mathematical and statistical models to map the trajectory of the pandemic in India.
The study suggests if the lockdown had not been imposed in March, the pandemic would have spread much more rapidly. In fact, in such a scenario, India would have hit a peak load of over 140 lakh cases by June.
The panel said while the number of symptomatic patients has peaked, total symptomatic infections in the country may touch 106 lakh by February 2021. India has recorded over 75 lakh infections as of Oct. 18.
The study comes with a caveat—the number of cases will start rising again if adequate precautions, like use of masks, disinfection, contact tracing and quarantine aren’t followed.
“Relaxation can lead to up to 26 lakh (fresh) infections within a month,” the panel said in its report. In such a scenario, the total number of cases will likely hit 137 lakh by February next year.
The findings also suggest that the upcoming festival season and winter may increase the susceptibility to infection, and cited the example of increase in case load in Kerala after Onam. During the same period probability increased by around 32%, according to the study, and effectiveness of medical response dropped by around 22% for Kerala in September.
“At the same time, we don’t yet know the weather-specific perturbations of this pandemic (in general, viruses tend to be more active in colder environment) and the effects of possible future mutations in the virus,” the report said.
The government has cautioned against making predictions based on mathematical models.
In October, Rajesh Bhushan, secretary at the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, when asked whether number of cases had peaked, had said it wouldn’t be right from the perspective of public health to predict peaks or declines based on mathematical models.
Jayaprakash Muliyil, one of India’s leading epidemiologists and chairman of the scientific committee of the National Institute of Epidemiology, said that to paint the Covid situation in India under one brush wouldn’t give a conclusive picture. “Putting everyone under one basket is a bit jarring and blunt way of analysing. Every mathematical projections are based on certain assumptions, and it’s difficult conclude for a country like India,” he said, adding that the only thing we can say that can be said is India’s slowing down the virus.
“In India different states or cities will be hit peak in different points in time.”
Other Key Findings Of The Study
- 30% of the population projected to have antibodies. It was 14% at the end of August.
- Cumulative mortality projected to be less than 0.04% of total infected.
- Migration in May-June didn’t significantly alter the outcomes.
- District and higher-level lockdowns not much effective now.
- All activities can be resumed provided proper safety protocols continue to be followed.
- If all the protocols are followed than the pandemic can be controlled by early next year with minimal active symptomatic infections by February-end.
- Cumulative mortality projected to be less than 0.04% of total infected.