Central Bankers’ Sober View, Oil Surge, World in 2030: Eco Day

(Bloomberg) --

Welcome to Monday, Europe. Here’s the latest news and analysis from Bloomberg Economics to help you start the day:

• The U.S. and the rest of the industrial world may have to resign themselves to an extended period of slow economic growth, subdued inflation and low interest rates. The trick will be in avoiding something even worse. That’s the sobering message from the American Economic Association’s annual conference
• Oil extended its dramatic surge above $70 a barrel as the fallout between the U.S. and Iran escalated. A flare-up in U.S.-Iran tension may be keeping oil elevated, but an actual disruption to global crude supplies is needed to keep prices at current levels, according to Goldman Sachs
• European bond sales are set to kick off in the first full week of 2020, as governments return to a market boosted by tensions in the Middle East
• Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin said a potential escalation of U.S. tensions with Iran is among the shocks that could threaten America’s record-long economic expansion, which for now looks “quite healthy”
• It’s not been a great decade for the global economy. Advanced economies have settled into a slower growth path. Emerging markets have struggled to escape the middle income trap. What will the next decade bring? It’s not all bad news, write Bloomberg Economics
• Some odd residential property measures are sprouting up in China as authorities seek to avoid any further slowdown in the nation’s crucial real estate sector
• India’s Finance Ministry has delivered a challenge to its revenue collectors: meet tax targets despite $20 billion of corporate tax cuts
• Strikes against French President Emmanuel Macron’s proposed pension reform entered their second month with no clear end in sight, as unions prepare for two more days of street protests, with some planning more radical actions.

To contact the reporter on this story: Jiyeun Lee in Hong Kong at jlee1029@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Paul Jackson at pjackson53@bloomberg.net, Michael S. Arnold

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