ADVERTISEMENT

Canada Underestimated Virus Deaths Amid Long-Term Care Outbreaks

Canada Underestimated Virus Deaths Amid Long-Term Care Outbreaks

(Bloomberg) -- Canada underestimated its Covid-19 fatalities amid virulent outbreaks at long-term care facilities, public health officials said.

The country now expects a total of 3,277 to 3,883 deaths by May 5, according to an updated model unveiled by Chief Public Health Officer Theresa Tam on Tuesday. On April 9, it had expected 500 to 700 deaths by April 16 when in fact it had 1,193 confirmed fatalities.

“We don’t know what final outcomes are yet. We’re still on the first wave,” Tam said at a technical briefing in Ottawa. “Until the epidemic is over you actually don’t know the true case fatality rate.”

Still, health officials said the country’s epidemic curve was “bending,” with the doubling rate of cases slowing to every 16 days from three days previously. Health officials now expect 53,196 to 66,835 cases by May 5 with 1% to 10% of the country’s 37.6 million population likely infected.

Outbreaks in long-term care and seniors’ homes have been driving the growth in the epidemic and account for almost 80% of deaths across the country. Canada has provided military assistance to help bring the virus under control in those facilities in Ontario and Quebec, which also represent 80% of all cases.

Canada’s chief doctor said public health measures should stay in place to contain the outbreak. Figures could also change, depending on when social-distancing measures are eased and whether the virus spreads further among vulnerable populations.

Canada had 49,041 confirmed cases and 2,766 deaths as of Tuesday.

©2020 Bloomberg L.P.