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Brussels Edition: Damage Assessment

Brussels Edition: Damage Assessment

(Bloomberg) -- Welcome to the Brussels Edition, Bloomberg’s daily briefing on what matters most in the heart of the European Union.

Euro-area nations are poised to reveal the extent of the damage they’ve suffered in the second half of the year. Over the next two days, third-quarter GDP data from some of the currency bloc’s biggest economies will be published, with a euro-wide estimate expected to show growth of just 0.1%. And the outlook? Confidence figures will gauge the mood among businesses and consumers amid threats ranging from Brexit to the trade war, while inflation data will confirm that the European Central Bank is falling short of its goal. Grim reading for Christine Lagarde as she takes over as ECB president.

What’s Happening

Another Vote | After failing to get his Brexit deal through Parliament, Boris Johnson pivots into campaign mode as Britain heads for its third election since 2015. The December vote is likely to become a proxy referendum on European Union membership, and will shape the country for decades.

Quantitative Easing | Mario Draghi has said his goodbyes, and now it’s time for Lagarde to oversee the ECB’s latest wave of money pumping into the region’s ailing economies. Bond markets will start feeling it today, with Italy likely to be one of the biggest winners.

Procurement Weapon | A long-dormant proposal from the European Commission to expand its trade-policy arsenal is being brought back to life. An EU trade working group resumes talks today on a 2016 draft law that would empower the commission to fight discrimination in public-procurement markets abroad. It reflects growing European concerns about protectionism worldwide.

Probing Champions | The EU is conducting a full-scale investigation of a planned merger that would create a European shipbuilding champion, even after a chorus of  politicians has said the continent needs such titans to compete with China. The bloc, which has already vetoed a merger for a rail champion, warned that the tie-up between Italy’s Fincantieri and the French state’s military shipbuilder Chantiers de l’Atlantique could significantly harm competition.

In Case You Missed It

Brexit Meltdown | So confident was Boris Johnson of getting Britain out of the EU by tomorrow that his Chancellor Sajid Javid announced plans for millions of 50-pence coins to be produced to mark the occasion. They are now set to be melted down.

Belgian Refuge | Former Catalan President Carles Puigdemont, who prompted a constitutional crisis in Spain with his bid for independence, has managed to push back a hearing on his arrest in Belgium to Dec. 16. It follows stiff jail sentences handed down to his fellow secessionists earlier this month.

Spy Wary | Huawei can’t be “fully trusted” in the roll-out of Germany’s 5G networks, the nation’s spy chief said, in comments that will please security hardliners in Chancellor Angela Merkel’s government. It’s just the latest salvo in the battle over the super-fast technology.

Orban’s Man | A controversial ally of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban was nominated to a nine-year term as the country’s chief prosecutor. Peter Polt has been criticized by international watchdogs for failing to pursue cases related to both the government and businesses with close ties to Orban and his Fidesz party.

Nuclear Fusion | At a time when tariffs, xenophobia, and intellectual-property laws are restricting the flow of people, material and ideas across borders, a 35-country network is seeking to harness the power that makes the stars shine.

Chart of the Day

Brussels Edition: Damage Assessment

Poland ranks among the lowest in the world on workforce growth, according to Bloomberg’s New Economy Drivers and Disruptors Report. With 2 million having already left for the U.K. and Ireland, officials expect the current population of 38 million to shrink by more than 7% in the next quarter-century, with over half of those remaining over the age of 50. The central European nation is being forced to rely heavily on migrants from Ukraine and Belarus.

Today’s Agenda

All times CET.

  • 3 p.m.: European Economic and Social Committee debate with Michel Barnier, European Commission chief negotiator for Brexit
  • EU Commission to publish Economic Sentiment Indicator & Business Climate Indicator for October

--With assistance from Zoe Schneeweiss, Jonathan Stearns and Aoife White.

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Emma Ross-Thomas at erossthomas@bloomberg.net, Iain Rogers

©2019 Bloomberg L.P.