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Brexit Bulletin: ‘Deeply Troubling’

Brexit Bulletin: ‘Deeply Troubling’

(Bloomberg) --

What’s Happening?

Can a prime minister shut down Parliament to ram through their own vision of Brexit?

House of Commons Speaker John Bercow — a staunch defender of Parliament’s right to muscle in on the Brexit process throughout — said on Thursday it should be “blindingly obvious” that the answer is no. “Parliament will not be evacuated from the center stage of the decision-making process,” he said, weighing into the debate in his now customary interventionist style.

Brexit Bulletin: ‘Deeply Troubling’

He was responding to Dominic Raab, the Brexit hardliner who is running to replace Theresa May, who fueled fears of a full-blown constitutional crisis by raising the prospect of sidelining Parliament to push through no-deal, using a tool known as prorogation. Other candidates, including Brexiteers, were quick to rule out such a move, which would violate the will of the House of Commons.

“Suspending Parliament deliberately to prevent the elected House from deciding something against the Prime Minister’s wishes would be a deeply troubling precedent to set,” wrote Hannah White of the Institute for Government, a think tank. “Prorogation is a good example of a part of the U.K.’s unwritten constitution that previous governments have chosen not to manipulate, on the grounds this would undermine trust and could be used by their opponents against them in the future.”

But it’s worth considering why such radical ideas are even being discussed. Theresa May’s exit as Tory leader on Friday doesn’t change any of the main obstacles to a negotiated and orderly exit. The Irish border is still an impossible riddle; the European Union says it won’t budge; Parliament is divided, with the ruling party lacking a majority; and the Tories are terrified of an election.

Many of the candidates’ strategies seem to be to try the same tactics May tried in the hope that their vim, vigor and can-do attitude will yield a different result.

No wonder Raab, who negotiated with the European Union as Brexit Secretary, thinks it’s time for creative solutions. But his proposal might well provoke the general election that the Tories are so desperate to avoid.

Today’s Must-Reads

  • Tory donor Peter Cruddas, the founder of online trading firm CMC Markets, says he backs Boris Johnson and will give money to his campaign.
  • Many democratic norms rely on an understanding that those in power will do the right thing, but that can no longer be taken for granted, writes Gaby Hinsliff in the Guardian
  • What will happen to the pound if a hardliner gets elected?  Bloomberg takes you through the scenarios.
Brexit Bulletin: ‘Deeply Troubling’

Brexit in Brief

Labour Beats Farage | The main U.K. opposition Labour Party unexpectedly defended the seat of Peterborough in a by-election, denting the momentum of Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party, which was the bookmakers’ favorite to win. Theresa May’s Conservatives were once again punished for their failure to deliver Brexit, coming in third place. The city voted 61% in favor of the split in the 2016 referendum.

Swipe at Boris? | Home Secretary Sajid Javid, a candidate in the Tory leadership race, said that the country risks more division if some of his rivals win. "Depending on how this decision goes, there are candidates that I believe the way they would try to win a future general election is by exploiting division," Javid said late Thursday. "That is something I utterly reject." He didn’t name names.

Norwegian Doubts | Brexit uncertainty has prompted Norway’s Oil and Energy Ministry to call for a deeper review of the risks of building a new power cable to the U.K. The 665-kilometer cable is being planned to connect Norway with northern Scotland to send Norwegian hydropower in exchange for wind energy.

Barnier’s Next Gig | With British politics in turmoil, the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator is spending his time on what looks like an unofficial campaign to be the European Commission’s next president. His latest stop was Helsinki, where he spoke about climate change, artificial intelligence, defense-spending, education and migration. But he’s not confirming he wants the top job. “For the moment I’m focused on Brexit,” he told a questioner after his speech. “100% on Brexit.”

First Challenge | The new Tory leader could face an immediate confidence vote in Parliament after he or she is chosen by the party, the Guardian reports. The government confirmed on Thursday that Parliament would be sitting when the new leader is chosen.

On the Markets | The pound was unchanged at $1.2695 early on Friday.

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To contact the editor responsible for this story: Neil Callanan at ncallanan@bloomberg.net, Andrew Blackman

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