Bolivia’s Morales Headed for Run-Off Vote as Rival Outperforms

(Bloomberg) -- Bolivian President Evo Morales seems headed for a run-off vote in his bid for a fourth term as president, after a better-than-expected performance by the opposition in Sunday’s election.

Morales won 45% of the vote, compared with 38% for his closest rival, Carlos Mesa, with 84% of ballots counted, Bolivia’s electoral agency said late Sunday. At present, the gap is too narrow to avoid a December second round.

But with no further update of the results since Sunday evening, the Organization of American States said in a tweet that the electoral authority must explain why it stopped broadcasting the results, with the count still incomplete. On Monday Bolivia’s Supreme Electoral Court (TSE) said the count would begin again shortly.

Mesa said in a video posted on Twitter that it’s “extremely grave” that the vote count wasn’t completed punctually. Morales claimed victory and avoided any mention of a second round.

Morales has presided over more than a decade of economic growth, rising incomes and falling poverty, but this election has been the stiffest test to date for the leader, an Aymara Indian in a country historically ruled by a richer, white elite. His dedication to democracy has been questioned since he ignored the result of a 2016 referendum on presidential term limits.

The preliminary numbers show Mesa beat poll forecasts, though Morales’s lead may widen as the electoral court counts votes from rural areas where he’s traditionally stronger.

The nation’s dollar bonds due 2028 rallied 0.2% slightly, sending yields to a seven-week low of 5.07%.

A quick ballot count by pollster ViaCiencia cited by newspaper La Razon projected Morales with almost 44% of the vote, with Mesa at 39.4%.

Economic Challenge

Recent data show the nation’s economy may be starting to slow. Just three commodities make up over 70% of Bolivia’s exports: gas, zinc and gold. With exports of gas in decline, the country’s future sources of income look less secure.

The Morales government, which has been pragmatic in spite of his left-leaning rhetoric, has sought to shore up economic activity with public spending. But that’s sparked an increase in the nation’s public debt and a dwindling of its international reserves.

Bolivia’s TSE released a statement earlier on Sunday stating that voting in the Andean nation had largely taken place “normally” and “with few incidents.”

To contact the reporters on this story: Jonathan Roeder in Mexico City at jroeder@bloomberg.net;Bruce Douglas in Brasilia Newsroom at bdouglas24@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Juan Pablo Spinetto at jspinetto@bloomberg.net, Walter Brandimarte

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