Atlantic Storm Season May See Early Start for Record Sixth Year

(Bloomberg) -- For a record sixth year in a row, the Atlantic hurricane season may be starting a bit early.

There’s a 50% chance a named storm will develop a few hundred miles northeast of the Bahamas by Sunday, 15 days before the formal June 1 start of the season, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said. While it wouldn’t be a threat to the U.S., it would earn a name if develops -- Arthur.

A low pressure system in that region could grow into at least a sub-tropical storm as it moves further into the Atlantic, the hurricane center said in a statement Tuesday. Sub-tropical storms share structural features with tropical storms and hurricanes, and are named.

The formal June 1 start date and Nov. 30 end date for the hurricane season are based on long-term averages, according to Jim Foerster, chief meteorologist with DTN, which provides weather for energy, agriculture and industry. But climate change is increasingly changing the norm and allowing conditions that are ripe for tropical storms to arrive earlier and stay later in the calendar year.

“With climate change,” Foerster said, “we are seeing these traditional patterns shift from where they used to be.”

Here are the storms that have occurred before June 5 since 2015, according to National Hurricane Center data:

• 2019: Sub-tropical Storm Andrea May 20-21
• 2018: Tropical Storm Alberto May 25-31
• 2017: Tropical Storm Arlene April 19-21
• 2016: Hurricane Alex Jan. 12-15; Tropical Storm Bonnie, May 27-June 4
• 2015: Tropical Storm Ana May 8-11

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