Apple Bull Says Trade Risk Priced Into Shares After Rout

(Bloomberg) -- Apple Inc.’s slump this month could mean that risks from an escalating U.S. trade war with China are already reflected in the stock, one of the company’s boosters said on Thursday.

“We view risks related to China tariffs as priced in,” Bank of America Corp. analyst Wamsi Mohan wrote in a note to clients. He affirmed his buy rating and $230 price target, a view that implies upside of nearly 30%. The firm’s positive stance stems from a “stabilization of iPhones, capital return program, ramp in services and potential for new products,” Mohan said.

Shares of Apple rose 0.4%, putting the company on pace to snap a five-day losing streak, its longest since November. The stock remains down about 16% from its May highs.

The recent pressure has come amid the Trump administration’s blacklisting of Huawei Technologies Co., a move that was seen as raising the prospect of reprisals. However, Bank of America views this as unlikely.

“It is not possible for us to know for sure how China would react” to the Huawei ban, Mohan wrote. “However, given the estimated 2mn people employed in the Apple supply chain in China, and over 2mn Apple App developers in China, we view the likelihood of major retaliation against Apple to be low.”

Morgan Stanley wrote that there was a near-term floor for Apple shares at $160, or 9.8% below the stock’s Wednesday close. Analyst Katy Huberty expects trading to remain “choppy,” but she doesn’t see China formally banning iPhone sales, given they’re produced in the country.

“The greatest risk to Apple is that Chinese consumers meaningfully slow their purchases of Apple products, which would likely cause another round of estimate cuts,” she wrote.

Both China and the iPhone are central to the Cupertino, California-based company. According to data compiled by Bloomberg, Apple derived nearly 20% of its 2018 revenue from China, while the iPhone accounted for more than 60% of its total 2018 revenue.

Earlier this week, Cowen calculated that Apple’s earnings could drop 26% in its 2020 fiscal year in the event that China banned the iPhone, something it deemed an “extreme case” scenario.

To contact the reporter on this story: Ryan Vlastelica in New York at rvlastelica1@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Catherine Larkin at clarkin4@bloomberg.net, Brad Olesen, Will Daley

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