Appetite for Chicken to Drive Meat Output Rebound in Next Decade

(Bloomberg) -- A deadly swine disease and the coronavirus pandemic may be hurting meat production for now, but they won’t stop the industry’s expansion over the next decade, largely thanks to the world’s continued appetite for chicken.

Global meat production will rise by 12% in the decade to 2029, with poultry output driving half of the growth, as countries such as Brazil and China expand output, according to a report from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and the United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization.

Production will gradually recover by 2025 after hitting a “low point” this year due to the African swine fever and a likely impact from coronavirus, the organizations said Thursday.

Expansion of meat production is bad news for the environment. Carbon emissions from the agricultural industry are set to rise by 6% over the next decade with livestock seen accounting for most of the sector’s polluting footprint, the report showed. While environmental and health concerns are pushing more consumers in high-income countries to switch to plant-based diets, people in emerging markets are still adding more meat and dairy products onto their plates.

Lower and middle-income countries won’t switch en masse to plant-based diets in the next decade, according to Holger Matthey, an economist at the FAO’s trade and markets division. “This shows us we need to do more in terms of sustainability, advocating, and so on,” he said Thursday on a webcast.

Poultry is the top choice for consumers in developing countries thanks to lower prices, according to the OECD-FAO report. Still, while global meat consumption is set to rise, it will grow at much slower pace than it has in the past.

©2020 Bloomberg L.P.