Analysts’ Take On Reliance Jio’s Q3 Earnings
A sim card packet for Reliance Jio, the mobile network of Reliance Industries Ltd., is displayed at a store in Mumbai. (Photographer: Dhiraj Singh/Bloomberg)

Analysts’ Take On Reliance Jio’s Q3 Earnings

Reliance Jio Infocomm Ltd.’s average revenue per user rose to its highest level in 12 quarters, aided by subscriber additions.

But it saw an increase in churn rate due Covid-19 and recent farmer protests. Net subscriber addition stood at 5.2 million, half of the three-quarter average of 11.87 million. The management highlighted that demand for fibre-to-home internet continues to increase.

Here’s what analysts have to say about Reliance Jio’s third-quarter results:

Jefferies

  • Maintains cautious stance.
  • Jio continues to get delayed benefits of the 14-53% tariff hikes in December 2019, with its ARPUs growing 18% since pre-tariff hike levels.
  • Greater traction among smartphone segment as its average data usage has rose 8% sequentially even as voice usage increased 2.6%.
  • Moderation in Reliance Jio's subscriber additions despite its tariffs being at 7-20% discount to Bharti Airtel Ltd. could lead to delays in tariff hikes.
  • Jio may be susceptible to further churn as it may see quarterly contract expiry of 8-10 million JioPhone users from the fourth quarter.

Credit Suisse

  • With the pace of Jio's market share gains moderating, any potential price hike expectations in the near term could be delayed.
  • Expects Jio to launch an affordable smartphone over the next few quarters.
  • Retains preference for Airtel.

IIFL Securities

  • Maintains positive medium-term outlook.
  • Operating expenditure was largely in-line. Operating leverage drove 8.1% QoQ Ebitda growth.
  • Net debt reduction in first half led to 17% qoq fall in interest expenses.
  • 5.2 million net additions (mobile + FTTH) during 3Q were weaker. Considering the estimated 0.7 million FTTH sub adds in 3Q, we estimate that mobile net additions were only 4.5 million that was lower ever for Jio.

Morgan Stanley

  • FTTH, enterprise, IoT, and new commerce are key focus areas for the next few years.
  • Jio has locally developed 5G infrastructure—5G radio, gNodeB small cells and massive MIMO—for a possible 5G network rollout in the near future.
  • According to the company, the contribution of JioMart to the overall retail business is becoming meaningful.
  • JioMart has aggregated fashion and lifestyle, electronics and pharmacy on the platform, apart from grocery.

UBS

  • Maintains neutral rating on RIL.
  • ARPU grew due to increased customer engagement; data usage per sub increased 7.5% sequentially to 12.9GB/subscriber per month.
  • TRAI data shows Jio's subscriber additions lagging Bharti Airtel's for several months up to October 2020.

Goldman Sachs

  • Q3 results ahead of expectations.
  • Estimate FTTH to be about 1.5% of Jio’s revenues, or Rs 2 of the Rs 151 of the reported ARPU.
  • Jio could regain its subscriber addition advantage if it gets more aggressive on handsets/devices.
  • Expects Bharti Airtel’s ARPU outperformance vs Jio to continue.
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