A man looks up at an electronic ticker board that indicates stock figures at the Bombay Stock Exchange. (Photographer: Dhiraj Singh/Bloomberg)

Monsoon, Crude Prices, Geopolitics To Drive Markets This Week

The Indian equity market may witness volatility this week, tracking global cues in view of the ongoing trade spat between the US and China, crude oil prices, and progress of monsoon, say experts.

"Progress of monsoon is critical for market movement. Any easing of trade tensions between the US and China would be perceived as positive by the market leading to some pullback in stocks," said Sanjeev Zarbade, vice president – research, Kotak Securities Ltd.

According to Foram Parekh, fundamental analyst at Indiabulls Ventures, “Had the production increase been more than 1 million barrels per day, we'd have witnessed a steep decline in oil prices”. She said, with this outcome from the OPEC meeting, Brent crude will continue to hover around $75 per barrel.

“As long as Brent crude is between $70-75 per barrel, it will not have any major impact on the Indian equity markets which will remain a stock-picker's market,” Parekh said.

Mustafa Nadeem, chief executive officer at Epic Research, said trade war fears have been there and may continue to make a space in the sentiments of market participants. “That being said, the market has adjusted to developments of trade war and it’s now not seen as a risk on market, but basically on sectors that are directly affected by it."

Over the last week, the Sensex rose by 67.46 points, or 0.19 percent, to close at 35,689.60.

In the absence of any major trigger, global clues will dominate market sentiments. However, volatility could be seen as traders roll over positions in the F&O segment, said Gaurav Jain, director of Hem Securities.

Rahul Sharma, Senior Research Analyst with Equity99 said stock-specific action will remain the flavour of the week in an otherwise dull and direction-less trading market where investors look for global clues. “On the domestic front, investors will now track progress of monsoon.”