Canada Goose Surges on Surprise Profit, China Growth Prospects

(Bloomberg) -- Canada Goose Holdings Inc.’s forecast proved to be conservative again.

The luxury parka maker reported a profit in the fourth quarter while analysts had projected a loss. Earnings almost doubled for the fiscal year, the company said Friday, outpacing the at least 35 percent growth outlook it provided seven months ago. Canada Goose predicted an increase of at least 25 percent for the current year.

The shares surged as much as 31 percent in Toronto in their biggest intraday gain since the company went public in March 2017.

Canada Goose Surges on Surprise Profit, China Growth Prospects

Canada Goose, which is known for its Arctic-ready, $1,000-plus parkas, has added stores in cities such as London and Chicago, expanded its presence online and introduced lighter products such as windbreakers. It’s now betting on Chinese consumers’ newfound willingness to spend and recently unveiled plans to open a Beijing flagship store and a shop in Hong Kong this fall.

“These results reinforce my belief that we are still just scratching the surface of our global potential,” Chief Executive Officer Dani Reiss said in a statement.

After years of relying on wholesalers, the company’s focus on more lucrative direct-to-consumer sales has paid off and helped the stock more than triple in value since its initial public offering last year.

Analysts have said the company tends to undershoot with its forecasts. In June 2017, Canada Goose said sales would grow in the mid-to-high teens for the next three fiscal years and predicted adjusted profit growth of about 20 percent. Just five months later, it revised its outlook for fiscal 2018 to at least 25 percent, and profit growth to at least 35 percent.

On Friday it gave new guidance for fiscal 2019:

  • Annual sales growth of at least 20 percent
  • Adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization margin growth of at least 50 basis points
  • Profit growth, excluding some items, of at least 25 percent

The forecast assumes “impressive growth to continue, yet looks conservative on Ebitda margins,” Mark Petrie, an analyst at CIBC World Markets, said in a note to investors.

Excluding some items, earnings in the fiscal year that ended March 31 rose 95 percent to 84 Canadian cents. In the fourth quarter, the company posted profit of 9 Canadian cents, compared with analysts’ projections for a loss of 9 cents.

Canada Goose climbed as high as C$78.30 on Friday. They were already up 51 percent this year through Thursday’s close.

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