‘New Wind’ in Ukraine Bolsters Chance of Peace, Says Top Envoy

(Bloomberg) -- A “new wind blowing in Kyiv” under President Volodymyr Zelenskiy is opening up the chance of a breakthrough in the long-blocked peace process in Ukraine, a top international envoy said.

The mass exchange of prisoners arranged by Russia and Ukraine on Saturday after lengthy negotiations is an “extremely important step in this direction,” Martin Sajdik, a special representative to Ukraine of the 57-member Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, which has monitored the conflict on the ground, said in a phone interview. “It helps to create and increase mutual trust.”

Thirty-five Ukrainians, including 24 sailors detained last year in a naval clash with Russia off the coast of the Crimea peninsula annexed by the Kremlin, arrived home Saturday from Moscow. Ukraine also released 35 prisoners, who returned to Russia. The agreement was a boost for Zelenskiy, who’s prioritized the safe return to Ukraine of his compatriots since his landslide election in April.

A summit of leaders from Germany, France, Russia and Ukraine is due to take place later in September in a bid to put back on track the stalled 2015 Minsk peace accord. That would be the first time since 2016 that leaders of the four countries have met to discuss efforts to resolve the conflict, which has killed more than 13,000 people.

Sajdik in December presented a proposal for a five-year international peacekeeping mission in eastern Ukraine, where Russian-backed separatists have been fighting since 2014. It envisages the United Nations and the OSCE running a joint mission with elements of the military, police and civilians, as well as a reconstruction organization set up by the European Union.

While Russia responded coolly to his initiative, Sajdik says that he remains confident it could form the basis for an agreement. A separate proposal by German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier made when he was foreign minister, which would tie autonomous status for Donbas to OSCE endorsement of local elections there, could also be “helpful” to resolving the deadlock, he said.

At the heart of the dispute is the Kremlin’s desire to use the broad autonomy foreseen under the Minsk deal to continue to influence the Donbas, an idea that Kyiv rejects.

A new cease-fire declared in July is “going pretty well” despite violations that have accelerated this month, said Sajdik. He added that next year could see the local elections held, unlocking the way forward for Donbas to get the autonomy promised under the Minsk deal and Ukraine to regain control of the breakaway east’s border with Russia.

But this will depend on “compromises” by both Zelenskiy and Russian President Vladimir Putin, the envoy said. Russia’s economy is chafing under the impact of sanctions imposed by the U.S. and the EU over the Kremlin’s support for the Ukrainian rebels.

To contact the reporter on this story: Henry Meyer in Moscow at hmeyer4@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Gregory L. White at gwhite64@bloomberg.net, Paul Abelsky

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