Elections 2019 ‘State Of Play’: Modi Versus Mini-Modi In Odisha

Odisha votes in the first four phases from April 11 to April 29 to elect 21 members of the Lok Sabha and 147 members of the state Legislative Assembly. The people of the state have to vote to select the country’s prime minister as well as state’s chief minister. Naveen Patnaik’s Biju Janata Dal has been ruling the state for the past 19 years. Naveen Babu, as he is called, hopes to retain power on the back of his popularity, social welfare schemes, and a solid women vote bank. The Bharatiya Janata Party is hoping to exploit anti-incumbency and is bolstered by its panchayat election performance. BJP has set an ambitious target of dislodging BJD and achieving ‘Mission 120+’ in the 147-member state assembly. The Indian National Congress, under the current Pradesh Congress Committee President Niranjan Patnaik, is trying to make a comeback after nearly two decades out of power..Modi And Naveen Have Similar Personality Traits.Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chief Minister Naveen Patnaik are very similar to each other. Both are bachelors and do not have anybody ‘aagey peechey’ to take care of. So, they enjoy an image of being incorruptible and having zero tolerance for corruption. Both rely on bureaucrats for running their governments and implementing policy decisions. The country is run from the Prime Minister’s Office on Delhi’s Raisina Hill and and the state from the ‘Third Floor’ of the secretariat in Bhubaneswar. Both have towering personalities and each has created a huge fan base that is bigger than their party’s..Modi Marginally More Popular Than Patnaik.According to India Today’s Political Stock Exchange, 55 percent of respondents were satisfied with the central government’s performance and 57 percent want Modi to become prime minister again. 52 percent of respondents are satisfied with the work done by Naveen Patnaik’s government and 54 percent want to see him as chief minister again..This helps both parties fight the contest in a presidential-style and seek votes in the name of the leader.As per a C-Voter survey, Naveen Patnaik is ranked third in ‘satisfaction with the performance of chief ministers’ with a net score of 64.9. .Elections 2019 ‘State Of Play’: Tamil Nadu’s Game Of Musical Chairs.Simultaneous Elections Have Helped Naveen.The BJD has benefitted from simultaneous elections in the state. The last three state polls have been held along with Lok Sabha elections. The results show that the trends of the Vidhan Sabha polls are replicated in the Lok Sabha polls. 83 percent of the population in the state is rural. Voting takes place on the same days. There are two electronic voting machines present in a booth, and each voter has to cast two votes. How many differentiate between Lok Sabha and Vidhan Sabha elections, and instead press the same symbol button twice? The voting pattern, vote shares, and seats won suggest that many voted for the same party twice..BJD was leading in 116 assembly segments based on voting for Lok Sabha polls and it won almost the same number of seats in Vidhan Sabha (+1)..In 2014, Congress and BJD clocked a nearly identical number of voters in both Vidhan Sabha and Lok Sabha elections (with a 1-2 percent variance).Historically, BJP and Congress have received a higher number of votes in Lok Sabha polls versus Vidhan Sabha (10+ percent higher for each in 2004 and 2019; 20 percent higher for BJP in 2014).The number of votes received by Congress has remained at similar levels from 2004 to 2014, BJD’s doubled while BJP’s increased by around 40 percent..BJD Gained From Split In Opposition Votes.In Lok Sabha as well as Vidhan Sabha elections, BJD’s vote share has increased over time. The BJD has been benefitting from a split of opposing votes between the BJP and the Congress..The combined vote share recorded by BJP and Congress is higher than BJD’s, but the gap is narrowing. .In 88 seats out of 147 in the 2014 state assembly elections, the third-highest candidate secured more votes than the margin of victory, which shows how a division of votes help BJD. In 64 out of these 88 seats (73 percent), the BJD candidate emerged victorious, which accounts for 55 percent of its 2014 tally..Why The Fight For 48 Lok Sabha Seats In Maharashtra Is Closer Than It Seems.Women Votes Are Solidly With Naveen.Over the years, Naveen Patnaik has developed a solid vote bank of women. 47 percent of women voters in Odisha supported BJD in 2014, 6 percent higher than the party’s voteshare with men. Congress and BJP enjoy higher support amongst men than women. The self-help group revolution in the state, where lakhs of women have been given livelihood opportunities, has helped Patnaik consolidate the women vote..TINA Factor Has Helped Patnaik.One of the major reasons behind Patnaik’s uninterrupted 19-year stint is the absence of strong leaders in the opposition camps. In addition, whoever has challenged Naveen’s dominance in the BJD has been shown the door: Bijoy Mohapatra, Pyarimohan Mohapatra, and recently Baijayant Panda..The BJP has been projecting Dharmendra Pradhan for some time but he lags Naveen Patnaik in popularity by a big margin, around 30 percent..BJP Overtaking Congress As Number 2 Party In Odisha.The grand old party’s performance has been declining steadily, from a 44 percent vote share in the 1991 general elections to 26.4 percent in 2014. The party failed to score a single seat in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections. BJP’s vote share has more than doubled from 9.5 percent to 21.9 percent in this period..In the panchayat elections held in 2017, while Congress recorded 18 percent vote share, BJP got 33 percent..In the by-polls held for the Kandhamal Lok Sabha seat as well as the Bijepur assembly seat, BJP finished runner-up. Six Congress MLAs have resigned over the past few months..Hate Politics, Urban Aspiration Collide In Battle For Uttar Pradesh.Contest Primarily Between BJD And BJP, But Latter Lacks Infra.43 MLAs and 16 MPs have been denied tickets by the BJD and many of them have joined BJP. Patnaik is facing anti-incumbency due to various issues like corruption (mining scam), farmers plight, unemployment, poverty (33 percent of families are below the poverty line, higher than the national average) and health. The state is ranked 25th in human development indicators..To counter the threat, Patnaik has proposed 33 percent reservation for the party’s women candidates for the Lok Sabha and launched the KALIA scheme as income augmentation for assistance in cultivation and livelihood. 45 lakh farmers are expected to get this benefit. The BJD government claims 37 lakh farmers have been given the first tranche of Rs. 5,000. The second tranche, which was to be given out on April 1, 2019, has been stopped by the Election Commission..Having piggybacked on the BJD in the 1999 and 2004 elections, BJP has not been able to develop party structure in the state. Congress has a better structure but the cadre lacks the motivation to make a mark, as of now..Around 42% India’s Land Area Under Drought, Worsening Farm Distress In Election Year.Rumour Of Secret Deal Between BJP And BJD.The Congress has alleged that BJP and BJD are hand-in-glove with each other. BJP is going soft on Naveen, in lieu of potential support in case of a hung Parliament, Congress claims. While BJD says that it ideologically maintains equidistance from both Congress and BJP, it has supported BJP in the recent past, in the elections for President of India, and the Deputy Chairman of the Rajya Sabha elections. In the vice-presidential elections, BJD did not back BJP nominee Venkaiah Naidu..Opinion Polls Predict BJP Getting Majority Of Odisha’s Lok Sabha Seats.According to the three opinion polls released in the month of March, on an average, BJP is expected to win 12 (+11) seats while BJD would drop to 7 (-13)..If what opinion polls predict holds true, and the trend witnessed in the last three elections—of similar voting patterns in Vidhan Sabha and Lok Sabha polls—is maintained, the BJP, in all probability, is likely to win the assembly polls as well..To sum up, Naveen Babu is hoping to win most of Odisha’s seats in the Lok Sabha and Vidhan Sabha banking on Odia pride, the legacy of his father, and the TINA factor, among other things. In case of a hung verdict, along with other regional parties he could play the role of kingmaker. BJP and Congress hope that 19 years of anti-incumbency could tilt the scales in their favour..Amitabh Tiwari is a political commentator, strategist and consultant advising political parties and leaders. He was a corporate and investment banker. He is advising one of the political parties in Odisha..The views expressed here are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of BloombergQuint or its editorial team.

Elections 2019 ‘State Of Play’: Modi Versus Mini-Modi In Odisha

Naveen Patnaik goes into Odisha’s double-header election with a long track record, but faces a BJP rapidly on the rise.

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