Timothy A Duy
To See Where the Fed Goes Next, Look to 1994-1995
The nasty sell-off in equity markets has raised doubts about the Fed’s willingness to follow through with its plan. It shouldn’t.
Fed Policy Has Wall Street Staring at Purgatory
Falling stocks, rising rates and a strengthening dollar are all signs the central bank’s plan is working.
Inflation is too well contained to think the Fed will blindly raise interest rates to a level that restrains the economy.
Fed Is Intent on Raising Rates Even If Economy Sours
The Federal Reserve’s “r-star” has gone full supernova which means fund rates in the ‘neutral’ range has no special significance.
Most every market participant expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates another quarter percentage next week.
It’s better to let economic conditions dictate when to pause the monetary tightening process.
Federal Reserve Policy Is Becoming Less Predictable
The central bank is not inclined to take a leap of faith and pause to assess the impact of past rate increases.
Are investors too complacent? There are things to watch as warning signs.
Amidst fears of a repeat of the 2008 global crisis, the U.S economy’s flat yield curve is a sign of strength than failure.
The economy is expanding faster than policy makers expected.
Powell Wants to Create Some Mystery Around Fed Meetings
Powell’s Fed Faces a New Question About Inflation
The U.S. central bank has the ammunition to cushion the economy from negative shocks if needed.
Gaming the Fallout from a Trade War on the Fed's Rate Plans
Whether an inverted yield curve will cause the Fed to rethink its tightening plans is the big debate
Two more hikes will put interest rates at just about the bottom end of what is estimated to be a neutral.
Bond Traders Are Too Quick to Doubt the Fed's Resolve