Timothy A Duy
Are investors too complacent? There are things to watch as warning signs.
Amidst fears of a repeat of the 2008 global crisis, the U.S economy’s flat yield curve is a sign of strength than failure.
The economy is expanding faster than policy makers expected.
Powell Wants to Create Some Mystery Around Fed Meetings
Powell’s Fed Faces a New Question About Inflation
The U.S. central bank has the ammunition to cushion the economy from negative shocks if needed.
Gaming the Fallout from a Trade War on the Fed's Rate Plans
Whether an inverted yield curve will cause the Fed to rethink its tightening plans is the big debate
Two more hikes will put interest rates at just about the bottom end of what is estimated to be a neutral.
Bond Traders Are Too Quick to Doubt the Fed's Resolve
Wages Are Poised to Increase at a Faster Rate
Rising Producer Prices Signal Pressure on Profit Margins
Flat Yield Curve Is Just What the U.S. Economy Needs
Don’t worry about faster inflation. Fed would accept a recession before it allowed high inflation to rear its head.
Flattening Yield Curve Is Sending Message About Fed's Rate Plans
Market Turmoil Unlikely to Sway Fed on Interest Rates
Consumer prices rising at a 2.1% rate could be toxic when combined with very low unemployment.
The case for a gradual removal of financial accommodation remains largely intact.
Trump's Trade Policies Could Work Against Fiscal Stimulus
Predictions of four U.S. interest-rate hikes this year are on the rise. But the Fed will stick with three for now.
The Fed can’t allow financial markets to collapse while it frets about moral hazard.