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ICICI Securities Report
The revenue in Q3 FY22 will see steady growth for mobile services as the impact of 20% prepaid tariff hike will be limited only for one month.
SIM consolidation will drag down subs for Bharti Airtel Ltd. / Vodafone Idea Ltd., while Reliance Jio will see net add on JioPhone Next launch. Average revenue per user growth will look strong in the range of 4-7%QoQ with Airtel showing strong uptick from tariff hike, 4G addition and dip in low-end subs.
We expect next quarter to show bulk of tariff hike impact. Mobile services revenue will see growth of 3-4%. Data sub addition will remain weak from SIM consolidation and slower shift to 4G.
Q4 FY22E would be critical for mobile service providers as it would establish leader in incremental revenues coming from tariff hike which would put ground for long-term market share.
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