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CareEdge Research Report
In December 2021, the pace of headline inflation (Consumer Price Index) accelerated to 5.6%, 68 basis points higher over 4.9% in the previous month. The inflation reading spiked to a five-month high as the base effect turned unfavorable.
The uptick in retail inflation has been driven by a sharp rise in food inflation and rigid inflation in the fuel and miscellaneous components.
Sequentially, retail inflation has softened by 0.4% during the month. An adverse base is expected to drive up the inflation numbers in the coming months keeping it close to the upper band of the Reserve Bank of India’s flexible inflation target range of 2% to 6%. Retail inflation print for Dec-21 is lower than our forecast of 6.1%.
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