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ICICI Securities Report
Reuters’ Singapore GRM is up 2.2 times from $3.2/barrel of oil in August 2021 to $6.9/bbl in October 2021-to-date driven mainly by rise in diesel, jet fuel and fuel oil cracks.
Transportation fuel cracks are at 21-23 month highs. Cracks rise is driven by:
switch to liquid fuels from gas due to much higher gas prices;
fall in refinery utilisation in China; and
U.S. refinery closures due to hurricane Ida.
However, we estimate gross refining margin of Reliance Industries Ltd. to be lower than Singapore GRM in Oct-21-to-date mainly due to petcoke (produced instead of fuel oil) cracks being sharply lower than fuel oil cracks.
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