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ICICI Securities Report
Key reasons for Parag Milk Foods Ltd.'s weak Q4 FY21 performance:
steep decline in hotel-restaurant-cafe sales resulted in sharp 18.8% revenue decline. Lower sales to modern trade also resulted in decline in liquid milk revenues and
while gross margin was flat YoY, negative operating leverage resulted in 320 basis points lower Ebitda margin.
We model:
the revenues of core products (paneer, cheese, ghee etc.) to gradually recover in FY22-23 due to recovery in economy and favourable base,
off-take from HoReCa segment is also expected to recover in H2 FY22 and
post equity infusion, the balance sheet will strengthen with reduction in debt and interest cost.
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