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ICICI Securities Report
At latest futures, FY22-FY23E Brent is 5-4%, FY23E deep water and administered pricing mechanism gas prices are 40-60% and FY22E liquefied natural gas price is 22% above our estimates.
Net impact of this, upside to Numaligarh Refinery Ltd.’s FY22E gross refining margin and downside to Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Ltd.’s FY22-FY23E gas sales, is upside to FY22-FY23E earnings per share of ONGC of 8-27%, Oil India Ltd. of 14-17% and GAIL India Ltd. of 27-6%.
APM gas price surge may pose challenge to Gujarat Gas Ltd., Mahanagar Gas Ltd. and Indraprastha Gas Ltd. as compressed natural gas price may need to be hiked by 49-53% in October 2021-October 2022 to pass on gas cost rise and maintain margins.
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