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Nirmal Bang Report
In the near to medium term (FY21-FY24), earnings growth trajectory for most large cap pharma names in the sector will be driven by timing of monetization of their complex generic pipeline and innovation led new chemical entity opportunities in the U.S.
We do a sensitivity analysis of these complex generic opportunities/NCE opportunities on the earnings for the large cap companies under our coverage to arrive a bull, base and bear case scenario.
We estimate the impact of delay or failure to monetize the pipeline on potential earnings for these companies – FY21 – FY24.
Apart from complex generics, other elements that can meaningfully influence earnings in the medium term is also the Indian Pharmaceutical Market growth and scale up around biosimilar initiatives/successful vaccine approval for select companies.
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