Nirmal Bang: India’s Economic Recovery Intact Amid Rampant Virus Cases

Nirmal Bang Report

In the first fortnight of September, economic recovery continued to strive ahead even as the pace of increase in active virus cases accelerated.

The silver lining was the fact that despite the increase in number of deaths from the previous fortnight, there are signs of the number of deaths peaking.

New Delhi’s traffic congestion moderated from the previous fortnight but remained around pre-covid-19 levels.

Google mobility indicators also suggest that movement for essential services is back to pre-covid levels. Movement for retail and recreation is improving, but it is still far below pre-covid levels.

Meanwhile, use of public transport and movement for work is seeing some leveling off in recovery at much below pre-covid levels, which probably suggests some behavioural shift towards the use of private transport and preference for work from home.

After witnessing some marginal increase in the previous fortnight, rural and urban unemployment readings have once again improved.

E-way bills and electricity generation suggest continued recovery. Electricity generation has improved from the previous fortnight and the corresponding fortnight of the previous month.

Anecdotal evidence also suggests that peak power demand in early September 2020 has surpassed the levels seen in September last year.

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