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Nirmal Bang Research Report
We expect the Reserve Bank of India’s Monetary Policy Committee to keep rates on hold and reiterate its ‘accommodative’ stance at its meeting today.
While high frequency indicators have turned positive and many indicators have crossed pre-pandemic levels, we do not believe that the RBI will start raising rates (either reverse repo or repo) until there is concrete evidence of growth surpassing pre-pandemic levels.
In our base case, we expect the RBI to begin hiking the reverse repo rate only by April’22 with a repo hike penciled in by the end of Q1 FY23.
We expect the RBI to retain its gross domestic product growth forecast for FY22 at 9.5%.
Meanwhile, moderating consumer price index inflation over the past few months will also provide some respite to the RBI to continue with its ‘accommodative’ stance.
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