Motilal Oswal: India’s Q1 FY21 Current Account Surplus Highest In 16 Years - Analysis

Motilal Oswal: India’s Q1 FY21 Current Account Surplus Highest In 16 Years - Analysis

A person holds indian currency (Photographer: Dhiraj Singh/Bloomberg) 

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Motilal Oswal Report

India’s current account posted a surplus of U.S. dollar 19.8 billion (3.9% of gross domestic product) in Q1 FY21, slightly better than the market consensus of U.S. dollar 19.5 billion, but lower than our projection of U.S. dollar 21.1 billion.

This is the highest surplus since FY04 and follows a small surplus of U.S. dollar 0.6 billion (0.1% of GDP) in the previous quarter.

The economic lockdowns and crash in crude oil prices helped narrow India’s trade (goods) deficit in Q1 FY21, which came in at 15-year low of U.S. dollar 10 billion (2% of GDP), as against U.S. dollar 35 billion (4.8% of GDP) in the previous quarter and U.S. dollar 46.8 billion (6.6% of GDP) in Q1 FY20.

Note there has not been a single quarter of merchandise trade surplus since 1996 (since when the quarterly GDP data became available).

Click on the attachment to read the full report:

Motilal Oswal Ecoscope 011020.pdf
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