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Motilal Oswal Report
Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation came in flat at 6.7% YoY in August 2020, below our expectation and market consensus of 6.9%.
Notably, the number for July 2020 has been revised down to 6.7% from 6.9% earlier.
Retail inflation has remained above the Reserve Bank of India’s headline inflation target range of 2–6% since April 2020 (five months now).
Notwithstanding the sequentially lower food inflation (excluding non-alcoholic beverages and prepared meals) at 9% in August 2020 (from 9.3% a month ago), it remains at a very high level.
Within Food, ‘Cereals and Products’, ‘Pulses and Products’, ‘Meat and Fish’, ‘Milk and Products’, and ‘Spices’ exhibited lower inflation in August 2020; other sub-components such as ‘Fruits’, ‘Vegetables’, and ‘Oils and Fats’ still exhibited higher inflation during the month versus July 2020.
Separately, inflation in items of ‘Pan, Tobacco, and Intoxicants’ and ‘Fuel and Light’ came in higher at 11.2% and 3.1%, respectively, in August 2020 versus 10.5% and 2.7% in the previous month.
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