Motilal Oswal: India’s Economic Activity Contracts In August; Expect 6-7% YoY Decline In Q2 FY21 Real GDP

Motilal Oswal’s Economic Activity Index for India’s Gross Value Added declined for the sixth consecutive month in August.

A vegetable vendor counts Indian rupee notes on a road in Mumbai, India (Prashanth Vishwanathan/Bloomberg)

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Motilal Oswal Report

Our in-house Economic Activity Index (EAI) for India’s real gross added (called EAI-GVA) suggests 3.1% YoY decline in August 2020, marking the sixth consecutive contraction (versus decline of 5.1% a month ago and 4.4% growth in August 2019).

Industrial activities contracted 11.8% YoY, faster than the decline of 10.8% in July 2020, while the services sector shrank by only 0.9% YoY in August 2020.

This was supported by lower decline in freight traffic, buoyant financial sector and first growth in auto sales in 21 months.

Farm activities continued its robust growth implying non-farm GVA shrank 3.9% in August 2020.

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Motilal Oswal Ecoscope.pdf
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