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ICICI Securities Report
The key question for Multi Commodity Exchange of India Ltd. is its ability to recover lost volumes post the impact of the higher-margin trading norm and establish business traction in new products.
Basis H1 FY22 average daily trading volume and October 2021 trend, we factor-in futures/options (notional) ADTV of Rs 300 billion/80 billion for FY22E and Rs 400 billion/200 billion for FY23E.
We continue to reiterate that ADTV recovery need not necessarily be linear and MCX remains one of the better plays on commodity price volatility.
While any significant traction in optionalities remains distant, increase in options volumes can become a strong investment thesis.
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