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IDFC AMC Research Report
India’s November Consumer Price Index at 4.9% YoY was below consensus and our expectation, although it picked up from 4.5% in October.
While momentum in food prices was a bit lower than expected, it was the fuel and light basket which really surprised with a sequential contraction.
However, core CPI (headline excluding food and beverages, fuel and light) at 6.1% continued to be persistently high, particularly of concern in the context of recovering demand, and highlighted by the Reserve Bank of India Governor in his most recent monetary policy statement.
Notwithstanding the slight ‘dovish’ surprise of the November print, reasons for which we investigate below, several factors tilt the CPI’s balance towards a higher trajectory.
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