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ICRA Research Report
The low base of the nationwide lockdown expectedly boosted the year-on-year growth of the Index of Industrial Production to a series-high 134.4% in April 2021 (down 57.3% in April 2020) from the revised 24.1% in March 2021 (down 18.7% in March 2020), higher than our forecast (up 120.0%).
Given the comparability issues related to the lockdown in April 2020, we believe that assessing the growth in April 2021 relative to April 2019 provides a clearer signal of the underlying momentum in various sectors.
Encouragingly, the industrial output in April 2021 was in line with the April 2019 level (up 0.1%), driven by electricity (up 6.8%) and mining (up 0.2%), with a mild 0.9% decline in the manufacturing sector.
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