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ICRA Research Report
The YoY growth in the Index of Industrial Production eased considerably to a nine-month low of 1.4% in November 2021 (our expectation: up 2.0%) from 4.0% in October 2021, with the impact of the slackening momentum after the festive season compounded by the disruption caused by heavy rains in South India, amid the continuing issues afflicting the auto sector.
The moderation in industrial growth was broad-based across the three sectors and six use-based categories, with YoY contraction in capital goods and consumer durables deepening in Nov-21.
Moreover, industrial output slipped below the pre-Covid-19 levels in Nov-2021, led by manufacturing and mining.
Further, as many as 18 of the 23 sub-segments of manufacturing posted a lower output in Nov-21 vis-a-vis Nov-19. Overall, these trends lend support to the Monetary Policy Committee’s view that the economic recovery is not yet durable.
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