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Motilal Oswal Report
Our in-house Economic Activity Index for India’s real gross added (called EAI-GVA) grew in double-digits (11.6% YoY) in June 2021, after growing 38.1%/22.8% YoY in April 2021/May 2021 (after adjusting for a few components).
It implies EAI-GVA growth of 22.6% YoY in Q1 FY22, following a contraction of 14.4% YoY in Q1 FY21.
A low base led to higher double-digit growth in the non-farm sector (up 25.7% YoY in Q1 FY22), while farm activity grew 6.6% in the quarter.
Just like EAI-GVA, EAI-gross domestic product was also supported largely by a low base.
Although EAI-GDP grew by a modest 3.6% YoY in June-21 as against 62.8%/11.6% YoY in April-21/May-21, it increased by 23% YoY in Q1 FY22 as against a contraction of 21.2% YoY in Q1 FY21.
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