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ICICI Securities Report
Consumer Price Index inflation in September 2020 came in at eight-month high of 7.3%.
With this number, Q2 FY21 inflation averaged 6.9%, the highest quarterly average since Q1 FY15.
Persistently high inflation even during the times of weak aggregate demand has led to concerns that supply shock is outweighing demand shock in the economy.
While this may be true for the country as a whole, it is not true for all states.
We classify states based on confirmed Covid-19 cases per thousand into three groups -
Group 1 consists of states/Union Territoriess with relatively high spread of Covid-19 such as Delhi, Maharashtra, and Karnataka.
Group 2 consists of states/UTs with moderate spread of Covid-19 including Telangana, Haryana and Punjab.
Lastly, Group 3 consists of states with states/UTs with relatively low spread of Covid-19 including West Bengal, Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh.
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