ICICI Securities: Real GDP Contracts 23.9% In Q1 FY21

Since the beginning of lockdown, India’s construction sector was feared to be the worst-hit. Now, we now have a confirmation.

A day laborer wearing a protective mask sits on a tricycle outside a shuttered store in New Delhi, India. (Photographer: Anindito Mukherjee/Bloomberg)

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ICICI Securities Report

The much-awaited gross domestic product growth numbers released today painted a grim picture—real GDP growth contracted 23.9% YoY in Q1 FY21, sharply down from 3.1% in the preceding quarter and 5.2% in the corresponding quarter last year.

The growth contraction was larger than expected: consensus growth expectation for the quarter was -20% while our estimate was down 16%.

The surprising 10.3% YoY contraction in public admin against an expected 11% increase was amongst the main reasons for sharply lower than expected growth print.

Since the beginning of lockdown, it was expected that construction sector will be amongst the worst-hit.

This is because, construction activity is highly labour-intensive and discretionary. The sector also depends heavily on migrant workers, most of whom went back to their villages during the lockdown.

Today’s data release confirms the fears: construction sector contracted 50.3% in Q1 FY21, recording the sharpest contraction among all sectors.

Click on the attachment to read the full report:

ICICI Securities India GDP Q1FY21 Update.pdf
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