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ICICI Securities Report
The Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (TRAI) has released its monthly data on subscribers (subs) and MNP (mobile number portability) for April 2020. Industry active subs dipped 31.3 million on lockdown and non-availability of offline recharges.
Visitor location register (active) subs are based on best day in past 30 days, and worst could have a much higher impact. Accordingly, we have forecasted a decline in revenue for Bharti Airtel (Bharti) / Vodafone Idea Ltd. (VIL) in Q1 FY21.
The negative surprise was a dip in mobile broadband subscribers by 11.2 million, with highest decline for Vodafone Idea at 6.1 million, and Bharti’s dip by 3.8 million. Bharti’s mobile broadband subscribers market share improved 20 basis points to 24.8% and Reliance Jio to 53.4% (up 58 basis points).
RJio’s wired broadband subs net add is still uninspiring at 0.03 million month on month to 0.9 million, probably on logistics issue in lockdown (its market share was only at 4.7%).
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