ICICI Direct: Food Drives Inflation Higher But Sticky Core Provides Some Comfort

India’s retail inflation has averaged at 6.6% and 6.9% in the first two quarters of 2020-21, higher than RBI’s latest forecasts.

Shoppers wear protective masks while buying vegetables from a street stall in Mumbai, India. (Photographer: Dhiraj Singh/Bloomberg)

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ICICI Direct Report

Consumer Price Index inflation for September 2020 rose sharply to a high of 7.34% YoY compared to 6.7% in August 2020, driven by a sharp rise in food inflation even while core inflation fell slightly.

Inflation has averaged at 6.6% and 6.9% in the first two quarters of the current fiscal, higher than the Reserve Bank of India’s latest forecasts.

Food prices rose sharply to 9.7% in September compared to 8.3% in August led by a surge in vegetable prices (largely potatoes, tomatoes and onion) along with a rise in protein items like meat, fish and eggs.

Other items like oils and fats, fruits and non-alcoholic beverages also contributed to higher food inflation.

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ICICI Direct Inflation Oct20.pdf
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