HDFC Securities: Growth Divergence Remains High For FMCG Sector

India FMCG sector’s three-year CAGR rose 2% year-on-year in Q1 FY21, supported by healthy growth in the past two years.

A supermarket in Delhi. (Photographer: Dhiraj Singh/Bloomberg)

BQ Blue’s special research section collates quality and in-depth equity and economy research reports from across India’s top brokerages. These reports offer BloombergQuint’s subscribers an opportunity to expand their understanding of companies, sectors and the economy.

HDFC Securities Report

The HDFC Securities Institutional Research Consumer-Index sales declined by 19% YoY in Q1 FY21 (up 10% in Q1 FY20 and down 8% in Q4 FY20) as lockdown and weak sentiments continued to weigh heavily on several categories.

The three-year compound annual growth rate (which normalises all base adjustments over the past three years) in Q1 FY21 was up 2% YoY, supported by the healthy growth in the past two years.

Categories which outperformed our index in Q1 FY21 are food and beverages, over the counter fast moving consumer good (FMCG), home care, and oral care, clocking 38/33/2/down 5% YoY growth.

The divergence between the underperforming and outperforming categories was much sharper as consumer purchasing was largely necessity driven.

Footwear, liquor, quick service restaurant and paints categories were impacted the most, contracting by 68/58/58/46% YoY.

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HDFC Securities FMCG Update.pdf
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