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ICICI Securities Report
GAIL India Ltd.’s Q1 FY22 consolidated and standalone earnings per share are up 3.3-6.1 times YoY on Ebitda rise across segments.
The company, in its earnings call, indicated gas marketing Ebitda would be far higher from Q2 (Rs 5 billion in Q1) and in FY22E it may be higher than peak of Rs 28.5 billion in FY19.
The main driver of far higher marketing Ebitda is likely to be trading profit of $6.7-8.3/ metric million British thermal unit in Q2-Q4 versus just $2.5/mmbtu in Q1 on selling Henry hub-linked U.S. liquefied natural gas at spot prices.
It may mean GAIL’s FY22E gas marketing Ebitda may be Rs 14.9 billion higher than our estimate of Rs 27.6 billion.
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