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IDFC AMC Report
While we remain in steady state for now, it is stating the obvious that some sort of central bank normalisation cycle is ahead over the next couple of years.
Data releases on the margin tweak expectations around this (recent consumer price index being one example) but are unlikely to change the broader picture; unless data changes start turning extreme.
Given this, this is as reasonable a time as any to reiterate and analyse the bond framework that we are currently operating with and which is informing our broad approach to markets.
There are three pillars that define our current framework. These are as under:
the current effective policy rate is at emergency levels,
peak policy rates in this cycle are likely to be lower than in the last,
bond demand versus supply dynamics may remain a longer term issue.
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