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ICRA Research Report
The headline Consumer Price Index inflation eased to a five-month low 4.3% on a YoY basis in September 2021 (our expectation: up 4.8%) from 5.3% in August 2021, close to the mid-point of the Monetary Policy Committee’s 2-6% medium term target.
The decline in the YoY CPI inflation in September 2021 relative to August 2021 was mainly driven by a softening in the inflation for food and beverages, and to a small extent, housing.
Other sub-sectors recorded a flat or higher inflation reading in September 2021, which is a concern given rising costs related to energy, metals and logistics.
A high base is expected to temporarily dampen the CPI inflation for October-November 2021 to below 4.0%, before an upturn resumes in the remainder of this fiscal.
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