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ICICI Securities Report
Coal India Ltd.’s Q3 FY22 offtake volumes at 174 million tonne (up 12.8% YoY) took nine months-FY22 volumes to 481.8 mnte, up 17.6% YoY (up 15.4% versus nine months-FY20), at an all-time high. Key factors behind the surge in offtake volumes were:
higher power demand;
low coal stocks at most power plants;
unprecedented power prices on exchanges in October 2021,
elevated global coal prices, forcing Indian importers to look for domestic alternatives,
renewable energy generation still some way off from becoming a substitute for coal, especially during non-solar hours of the day.
If Coal India ends FY22E with 15% YoY growth, it will reach its annual offtake target of 660 mnte, higher than consensus and our own conservative estimate of 625 mnte.
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