(Bloomberg) -- If Matteo Salvini takes over as Italian prime minister, it’ll be because of his relentless campaign against illegal migrants, right? Not so fast.
While the immigration rhetoric is keeping Salvini’s League party ahead as he pushes for an early election, polls suggest it’s the economy that really demands his attention. Behind the fog of political drama, the public’s top concern is unemployment, which is close to 10%.
The next act is playing out on Tuesday when Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte addresses the Senate in Rome. If he calls and loses a confidence vote in the government or quits, an election may be on the way. Polls suggest Salvini, now one of two deputy prime ministers, would be likely to win.
One reason Salvini wants to end the coalition with his Five Star partners is his frustration with failing to secure drastic tax cuts in the 2020 budget, a League campaign promise from last year’s election campaign.
Salvini also wants to name an ally, Giancarlo Giorgetti, as finance minister to replace Giovanni Tria, who has frustrated his spending ambitions.
Italians have reason to be concerned about the economy. Growth stagnated in the second quarter and there’s little prospect of a significant pickup this year amid a broader euro-area slowdown.
Even as Salvini has hammered away at the theme, the number of immigrants arriving in Italy via the Mediterranean has fallen 80% from a year earlier to 8,691 in the twelve months through July. That compares with 180,000 arrivals during the same period two years ago. The number of foreign nationals living in Italy increased 1.8% this year to 4.2 million out of a total population of 60 million.
Salvini has touted the decline as a success for the stricter policies he has introduced, which include denying entry to boats that rescue migrants stranded at sea.
Italians still cite immigration as the biggest challenge facing the European Union. But concern about the economy is rising fast, followed closely by unemployment.
©2019 Bloomberg L.P.
RECOMMENDED FOR YOU
POPULAR