U.K. Conservative Manifesto Launch: What We Know, What We Expect

(Bloomberg) --

U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson unveils his Conservative Party’s election manifesto on Sunday with a promise to end the “seemingly unending Brexit box-set drama.”

The Tories have pledged to loosen fiscal rules to allow more government spending, cut business rates and boost investment in schools and policing -- without raising income tax, -added tax or National Insurance rates.

Even so, the announcements so far have been far less radical than the Labour Party, which published its policies on Thursday. Based on statements and interviews with politicians, here’s what we expect the Tory plan to contain:

Brexit

• Ratify Johnson’s deal with the European Union before the new Jan. 31 deadline
• Once that’s done, negotiate and ratify a free-trade agreement with the EU quickly enough to ensure an extension to the transition phase -- scheduled to end at the end of 2020 -- is not needed

Taxation, Spending

• Borrow more to invest in infrastructure under loosened fiscal rules, which will allow an increase of 13.8 billion pounds ($17.7 billion) in spending across all departments by 2021
• The rates of income tax, national insurance and VAT will not rise
• Raise the threshold for making National Insurance contributions from 8,628 pounds year to 9,500 in the government’s first budget, with a goal to raise it to 12,500 pounds at an unspecified future date
• Reduce the “overall burden” of business rates
• Increase the tax relief on buildings and research and development
• The party has said a planned cut in corporation tax is shelved

Labor

• Raise the minimum wage to 10.50 pounds an hour by 2024
• A National Skills Fund, which will give individuals and small businesses the chance to receive vocational training

Environment

• Make the U.K. carbon neutral by 2050, including by planting 30 million trees
• Spend 6.3 billion pounds on energy efficiency measures to cut fuel bills in millions of homes
• A ban on exporting plastic waste outside OECD countries to reduce ocean damage

Health Care

• An extra 34 billion pounds a year in funding for the state-run National Health Service by 2024
• A 2.7 billion-pound investment to build 40 hospitals. This has been widely disputed by opposition parties and fact-checkers, who put the actual number of new hospitals at six
• Commit 1 billion pounds per year extra funding to local authorities so they can better deal with demands for social care
• End hospital car park charges for some staff, patients and visitors

Education

• A 1 billion-pound investment to boost childcare provisions
• More funding for schools as part of a broader increase in public spending

Housing

• Build at least 1 million more homes by 2024
• Introduce a 3% surcharge to foreign buyers of homes in England
• Ban “no fault evictions,” where tenants are evicted before the end of their contract without a proper reason
• Lifetime rental deposits program, allowing payments to be transferred when tenants move house

Law, Policing

• Recruit 20,000 new police officers
• Increase stop-and-search powers for police
• Ensure those guilty of premeditated murder of a child are never eligible for release

Transport

• New fund to reopen disused railway lines axed in the 1960s, beginning with northern England
• Invest 2 billion pounds to repair the U.K.’s roads

Immigration

• An Australian-style points-based visa system to prioritize skilled workers

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