Syria Showdown Looms as Third Turkish Base Besieged in Idlib

(Bloomberg) -- Turkey said it expects Russia to attend talks on spiraling tensions in Syria as Ankara confirmed that Syrian forces have put a third Turkish military outpost under siege in Idlib province.

Amid Turkish concerns of a new refugee exodus from Syria, a Russian delegation will visit Ankara on Saturday to discuss the deteriorating situation in Idlib following the capture of the strategic town of Saraqib late Thursday, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said. Russian officials haven’t commented on whether a meeting will take place.

“We will do whatever is necessary to stop this humanitarian drama and disaster,” Cavusoglu told reporters on Friday. “We’re working together and reevaluating the situation with Russia, which is the guarantor of the regime,” in Syria, he said.

Turkey has ruled out the withdrawal of troops from 12 Turkish military outposts around Idlib. Two senior Turkish officials, who have direct knowledge of its Syria policy, said Thursday that Ankara also won’t agree to relocate its bases in the area if requested by Moscow.

Relations between Ankara and Moscow have been strained since Syrian troops killed seven Turkish soldiers and a civilian on Monday in Idlib. Syria’s government is using Russian air support to try to vanquish onetime al-Qaeda affiliates and Turkey-backed rebels in the province. Saraqib was taken a day after Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan told Syria to end its siege of two other Turkish military outposts in northwestern Idlib and threatened to break it himself.

Key Juncture

The town lies just 16 kilometers (10 miles) from Idlib’s center, and its fall gives Syrian forces control of a key juncture where highways linking the provinces of Aleppo, Idlib and Latakia intersect.

Turkish officials said they suspect Russian claims that Moscow lacks authority over Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s forces may be a harbinger of attempts to walk back the terms of a 2017 military pact that established a fragile truce in Idlib, where onetime al-Qaeda affiliates and Turkey-backed rebels are now under assault.

“In the light of the latest events, Russia and Turkey want to do everything to minimize military casualties and avoid the risk of terrorist attacks,” said Igor Korotchenko, head of the Center for Analysis of World Arms Trade in Moscow. “The problem is that Turkey has failed to live up to its commitments to bring Idlib under control.”

Idlib was declared a de-escalation zone under a 2017 agreement between Russia, Turkey and Iran, which established military posts in the province to monitor any flare-ups.

Turkey, which already shelters the largest number of Syrian refugees, fears another 1 to 2 million people may flee toward its border if Idlib falls. Erdogan sent tanks and armored carriers into the province after Monday’s attack by Syrian forces.

Coordination with Russia’s military in Idlib remains unaffected despite the Syrian advance, a Turkish official said Friday.

Erdogan Threatens to Force Syria to End Siege of Turk Troops

Turkish forces failed to join a scheduled joint patrol in Syria’s northeastern Hasakah province near the Turkish border on Thursday and Russian military police conducted the mission without them, the Tass news service reported, citing Russia’s Defense Ministry.

Syrian authorities “should know well that we won’t leave any threat to our soldiers without a response,” Ibrahim Kalin, a spokesman for Erdogan, said Thursday before the capture of Saraqib. “From now on, any mistake by the regime under the pretext of struggling against terrorism and terrorist groups will have grave consequences.”

Changing the locations of the Turkish outposts would violate the Sochi and Astana accords struck by Turkey, Russia and Iran to curtail fighting in northern Syria, Kalin said.

Russia and Turkey “understand the risk of a direct clash” between them, which could happen by mistake, said Andrey Kortunov, director general of the Kremlin-founded Russian International Affairs Council. “But it’s almost inevitable we’ll see rising casualties among Syrian and Turkish forces if this situation can’t be resolved.”

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