Nifty This Week: Technical Charts And More – When The Market Bats Like Sandeep Patil

Now, the reason why Sandeep Patil suddenly comes to mind is that the market had been playing like him (doing his 174-wala inning) when suddenly, it started developing some hiccups. Departing from its usual pattern of recovering from the dips (buy the first dip had almost become a faith), the Nifty went down in all five sessions.

Here is our weekly look-back tour of the index.

So, the buy-the-dip chaps got a bit of a shock when prices simply kept dropping. That wasn’t in the script earlier. But the overall breadth continued to remain positive and there were enough winners going around to keep people busy from noticing much of what was happening with the Nifty. Besides, the Bank Nifty was charging ahead and that tends to get the juices flowing for a lot of folks. This happened in the latter part of the week and apparently, Nifty traders, realising that their usual ploy was not working, switched teams. The Bank Nifty, until then was lying dormant but the sudden shift of attention sent it hurtling higher to finish well above the 40,000 mark.

But that seems like a bit of chimera because the entire bunch of sector indices were playing and missing their strokes last week. It was as though, the pitch had suddenly turned hostile and the bounce was getting nasty. So most certainly, the free-wheeling batting exhibition going on for a while now has got caught in some new hostile bowling.

The following table from Neotrader shows the weekly picture of sectoral performances. As mentioned, only the banks have managed to hold their head above the water.

So is it time to throw in the towel? Hey, you don’t get to write off Sandeep Patil so quickly! He is made of sterner stuff.

Take a look at the next table that shows the monthly breakup of sectors. Now, you will find that it does not look so bad. Instead of a sea of red that you see on the weekly, this is a more respectable-looking picture.

This is what happened back in Australia in those days.

Sandeep Patil was among those batsmen in the 1980s who batted without wearing a helmet. The fierce Aussie bowler, Len Pascoe, then bowled a vicious one that got Patil on his head - he went down with a concussion. After recovering, Patil came back on in the next test, wearing a helmet, and smote Pascoe and Rodney Hogg and the other fast bowlers all over the ground.

So, that is what everyone is hoping is going to happen once again. That the Nifty, after this brief pause, will re-find its moorings and speed off yet again. No reason why it shouldn’t. With earnings season still on, there is enough news flow and activity in the market to keep the sentiment meter ticking.

But we cannot remain complacent that patterns will keep repeating endlessly. This is why we prepare. Here is Sun Tzu, in the Art of War, on that topic, “The art of war teaches us to rely not on the likelihood of the enemy's not coming, but on our own readiness to receive him; not on the chance of his not attacking, but rather on the fact that we have made our position unassailable.”

The new support zone would be in the 17,000-17,500 zone based on various trendlines that can be drawn. Other trend tracking indicators offer support even further away if seen on weekly charts. So the best would be to wait for the trends in the shorter time frame charts to improve and then get into the action.

CK Narayan is an expert in technical analysis; founder of Growth Avenues, Chartadvise and NeoTrader; and chief investment officer of Plus Delta Portfolios.

The views expressed here are those of the author, and do not necessarily represent the views of BloombergQuint or its editorial team.