Merck Has a Problem Every Drugmaker Wishes It Had

(Bloomberg Opinion) -- Merck & Co. has a problem, but it’s the kind of problem the rest of the pharmaceutical world  wish they had.  

The drugmaker released second-quarter earnings and revenue figures Tuesday that smashed Wall Street expectations and prompted a significant boost to full-year guidance. The driver – as always for Merck – was blockbuster immune-boosting cancer treatment Keytruda. Sales of the medicine, which is approved to treat a wide variety of cancers, were $2.6 billion in the latest quarter, 58% higher than a year earlier. Keytruda’s performance was so good, its year-over-year growth exceeded the second-quarter sales of all but one other Merck franchise. 

Therein lies the issue: Merck is already over-dependent on Keytruda and is poised to become even more so. That’s generally not good. But because the drug is so successful the company will have a long and well-funded grace period to find a solution. So it could be worse.

Keytruda’s present is pretty fabulous. Its future looks even brighter. Merck recently announced that the drug succeeded in a breast-cancer trial, while rival Bristol-Myers Squibb Co.’s Opdivo produced mixed data that will hamper it in the crucial lung market. Peak sales estimates for Keytruda have crept over $20 billion, and I can’t call that entirely crazy. 

The drug isn’t invincible. It has failed trials in liver and gastric cancer, and Merck can’t entirely dismiss competition with five similar medicines on the market and more on the way. There’s always a chance that an innovative new treatment could leapfrog Keytruda. And Merck and its shareholders must know that relying too heavily on even an excellent product is unwise.

Merck isn’t entirely bereft of other drugs. It has a solid vaccine unit and a promising HIV medicine in development. But the company doesn’t appear to have anything coming in its pipeline that would contribute anything near Keytruda’s growth and anytime soon.

At the end of the day, either Keytruda is best in a highly lucrative category, or Merck is best in class at executing a strategy to expand its use. Further years of splendid sales growth seem more likely than not. That doesn’t absolve Merck of the need to act and bolster its pipeline. But it does allow management to be relatively patient and look for instead of overpaying for late-stage assets or gambling on a risky mega-merger. 

It had best not wait too long, however. Big pharma does seem to have a knack for flubbing efforts to replace big blockbusters, even when they have years of notice. Success breeds complacency, and Merck will regret it if it wastes the next few years.

This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.

Max Nisen is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering biotech, pharma and health care. He previously wrote about management and corporate strategy for Quartz and Business Insider.

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