(Bloomberg) -- Egypt may be able to have it both ways this week: enacting monetary easing to fight the economic impact of Covid-19 without dimming the allure of its carry trade.
That could see the central bank’s Monetary Policy Committee making its second consecutive interest-rate cut on Thursday. But it’s far from certain, with five of 12 economists surveyed by Bloomberg expecting the benchmark deposit rate to remain steady at 8.75% and a slight majority predicting a 50 basis-point reduction.
It’s the most divided forecasters have been since February. The North African country slashed 300 basis points at an emergency meeting the following month.
Keeping overseas debt investments rolling in will be a key consideration. Foreign holdings in local Treasury bills and bonds climbed to $21.7 billion at the end of October.
The inflows, which have been fueled by the world’s best carry-trade returns after Argentina and agreements with the International Monetary Fund, mark a solid reversal after the coronavirus spurred a selloff earlier in 2020.
Inflation accelerated to 4.5% in October, but remains well within the central bank’s target range for the fourth quarter. Egypt’s key rate is the highest among more than 50 major economies tracked by Bloomberg when adjusted for prices.
“Inflation is still way below target, economic growth looks slow and real rates are still very high -- that’s plenty of scope to ease without threatening the carry trade, especially if global risk appetite continues to rally,” said Simon Williams, HSBC Holdings Plc’s chief economist for Central & Eastern Europe, the Middle East and Africa.
Recent news of a viable Covid-19 vaccine signals a timetable for a possible end to the pandemic. That in turn could reduce external financing risks for Egypt, Farouk Soussa, an economist at Goldman Sachs Group Inc., said in a note.
A repeat of September’s 50 basis-point cut would help reduce Egypt’s budget deficit and give added support to the private sector, which is beginning to revive. Business activity grew for a second month in October, buoyed by an uptick in new orders.
That said, caution over accelerating inflation might prompt a rate-pause. The central bank may also want to assess the seriousness of a new worldwide wave of the virus and when exactly a vaccine will be widely available, according to Mohamed Abu Basha, head of macroeconomic research at Cairo-based EFG Hermes.
©2020 Bloomberg L.P.
RECOMMENDED FOR YOU
POPULAR